## ----setup, include = FALSE---------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>",
  fig.width = 7,
  fig.height = 4
)

## ----libs---------------------------------------------------------------------
library(contagionchannels)
library(xts)
library(dplyr)

## ----contracts, eval = FALSE--------------------------------------------------
# str(my_returns_xts)
# # An 'xts' object on 2010-01-04/2024-12-31 of 18 columns
# 
# str(my_channels_df)
# # 'data.frame' with Date + raw component columns

## ----periods, eval = FALSE----------------------------------------------------
# my_periods <- list(
#   Pre_Pandemic = as.Date(c("2018-01-02", "2020-01-31")),
#   Pandemic     = as.Date(c("2020-02-01", "2021-12-31")),
#   Recovery     = as.Date(c("2022-01-01", "2024-12-31"))
# )

## ----composites, eval = FALSE-------------------------------------------------
# my_mapping <- list(
#   Trade           = c("BDI_chg", "TradeWeightedFX_chg", "ContainerRate_chg"),
#   Financial       = c("FRAOIS", "TEDspread", "CDS_lvl"),
#   Geopolitical    = c("GPR_daily", "GPR_actions"),
#   Behavioral      = c("VIX_innov", "VVIX_innov", "PutCallRatio"),
#   Monetary_Policy = c("ShadowRate_surp", "FF_futures_surp")
# )
# 
# my_channels <- build_channel_composites(
#   proxy_grid = my_proxies_df,
#   mapping    = my_mapping,
#   standardise = "rolling_252"
# )

## ----pipeline, eval = FALSE---------------------------------------------------
# results <- run_contagion_pipeline(
#   returns       = my_returns_xts,
#   channels      = my_channels,
#   periods       = my_periods,
#   scale         = 5,
#   tau           = 0.50,
#   abs_threshold = NULL,    # NULL => derive from first period Q75
#   methods       = c("iv2sls", "lp"),
#   bootstrap_B   = 499,
#   n_cores = 4
# )

## ----plotting, eval = FALSE---------------------------------------------------
# plot_attribution_stack(
#   shares_long = results$shares_long,
#   period_order = names(my_periods),
#   palette      = c(Trade = "#1f77b4", Financial = "#d62728",
#                    Geopolitical = "#9467bd", Behavioral = "#2ca02c",
#                    Monetary_Policy = "#ff7f0e")
# )
# 
# plot_qte_intensity(
#   F_matrix  = results$F_matrices$Pandemic,
#   threshold = results$abs_threshold,
#   market_order = c("US", "EU", "JP", "EM_Asia", "EM_LatAm")
# )

## ----synthetic-data-----------------------------------------------------------
set.seed(20260429)

n_obs   <- 1500
markets <- c("US", "EU", "JP", "EM_Asia", "EM_LatAm")
dates   <- seq.Date(from = as.Date("2018-01-02"), by = "day",
                    length.out = n_obs)

# Common factor + idiosyncratic shocks
Fcom <- rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.012)
ret_mat <- sapply(markets, function(m) {
  loading <- runif(1, 0.4, 0.9)
  loading * Fcom + rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.010)
})
my_returns <- xts(ret_mat, order.by = dates)

# Channel proxy raw components
my_proxies <- data.frame(
  Date              = dates,
  BDI_chg           = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.5),
  TradeFX_chg       = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.4),
  FRAOIS            = arima.sim(list(ar = 0.95), n_obs) * 0.01,
  TEDspread         = arima.sim(list(ar = 0.93), n_obs) * 0.01,
  GPR_daily         = exp(rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.2)),
  GPR_actions       = exp(rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.3)),
  VIX_innov         = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 1.5),
  VVIX_innov        = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 1.0),
  ShadowRate_surp   = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.05),
  FF_futures_surp   = rnorm(n_obs, sd = 0.04)
)

my_mapping <- list(
  Trade           = c("BDI_chg", "TradeFX_chg"),
  Financial       = c("FRAOIS", "TEDspread"),
  Geopolitical    = c("GPR_daily", "GPR_actions"),
  Behavioral      = c("VIX_innov", "VVIX_innov"),
  Monetary_Policy = c("ShadowRate_surp", "FF_futures_surp")
)

my_periods <- list(
  Calm   = as.Date(c("2018-01-02", "2019-12-31")),
  Stress = as.Date(c("2020-01-01", "2021-12-31"))
)

## ----synthetic-composites, eval = FALSE---------------------------------------
# my_channels <- build_channel_composites(
#   proxy_grid  = my_proxies,
#   mapping     = my_mapping,
#   standardise = "rolling_252"
# )
# 
# head(my_channels, 3)

## ----synthetic-stage1, eval = FALSE-------------------------------------------
# calm_dates    <- my_periods$Calm
# returns_calm  <- my_returns[paste0(calm_dates[1], "/", calm_dates[2])]
# 
# F_calm <- compute_wqte_matrix(
#   returns   = returns_calm,
#   scale     = 5,
#   tau       = 0.50,
#   n_cores = 1,
# )
# 
# abs_thr_calm <- quantile(
#   F_calm[upper.tri(F_calm) | lower.tri(F_calm)],
#   probs = 0.75, na.rm = TRUE
# )
# 
# links_calm <- which(F_calm >= abs_thr_calm, arr.ind = TRUE)
# nrow(links_calm)

## ----synthetic-stage2, eval = FALSE-------------------------------------------
# channels_calm <- my_channels[
#   my_channels$Date >= calm_dates[1] & my_channels$Date <= calm_dates[2], ]
# 
# iv_calm <- iv_2sls_attribute(
#   returns_period  = returns_calm,
#   channels_period = channels_calm,
#   links           = links_calm,
#   cluster_se      = TRUE
# )
# 
# iv_calm$shares

## ----synthetic-pipeline, eval = FALSE-----------------------------------------
# synth_results <- run_contagion_pipeline(
#   returns       = my_returns,
#   channels      = my_channels,
#   periods       = my_periods,
#   scale         = 5,
#   tau           = 0.50,
#   abs_threshold = abs_thr_calm,
#   methods       = c("iv2sls"),
#   bootstrap_B   = 199,
#   n_cores = 1
# )
# 
# synth_results$summary_table

## ----session------------------------------------------------------------------
sessionInfo()